Molecular Evolution and Epidemiological Characteristics of SARS COV-2 in (Northwestern) Poland.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved into a worldwide outbreak, with the first Polish cases in February/March 2020. This study aimed to investigate the molecular epidemiology of the circulating virus lineages between March 2020 and February 2021. We performed variant identification, spike mutation pattern analysis, and phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses for 1106 high-coverage whole-genome sequences, implementing maximum likelihood, multiple continuous-time Markov chain, and Bayesian birth-death skyline models. For time trends, logistic regression was used. In the dataset, virus B.1.221 lineage was predominant (15.37%), followed by B.1.258 (15.01%) and B.1.1.29 (11.48%) strains. Three clades were identified, being responsible for 74.41% of infections over the analyzed period. Expansion in variant diversity was observed since September 2020 with increasing frequency of the number in spike substitutions, mainly H69V70 deletion, P681H, N439K, and S98F. In population dynamics inferences, three periods with exponential increase in infection were observed, beginning in March, July, and September 2020, respectively, and were driven by different virus clades. Additionally, a notable increase in infections caused by the B.1.1.7 lineage since February 2021 was noted. Over time, the virus accumulated mutations related to optimized transmissibility; therefore, faster dissemination is reflected by the second wave of epidemics in Poland.

Molecular Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy in the First Three Months of the Epidemic.

The aim of this study is the characterization and genomic tracing by phylogenetic analyses of 59 new SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates obtained from patients attending clinical centres in North and Central Italy until the end of April 2020. All but one of the newly-characterized genomes belonged to the lineage B.1, the most frequently identified in European countries, including Italy. Only a single sequence was found to belong to lineage B. A mean of 6 nucleotide substitutions per viral genome was observed, without significant differences between synonymous and non-synonymous mutations, indicating genetic drift as a major source for virus evolution. tMRCA estimation confirmed the probable origin of the epidemic between the end of January and the beginning of February with a rapid increase in the number of infections between the end of February and mid-March. Since early February, an effective reproduction number (Re) greater than 1 was estimated, which then increased reaching the peak of 2.3 in early March, confirming the circulation of the virus before the first COVID-19 cases were documented. Continuous use of state-of-the-art methods for molecular surveillance is warranted to trace virus circulation and evolution and inform effective prevention and containment of future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.